Summary The COVID-19 pandemic triggered an unprecedented increase in mortality that resulted in losses in life expectancy around the world, with only a few exceptions. We estimate changes in life expectancy in 29 countries since 2020 (including most of Europe, the United States and Chile), attribute them to changes in mortality by age group, and compare them to historical shocks to life expectancy. Our results show divergences in the mortality impacts of the pandemic in 2021. While Western European countries experienced a recovery of 2020 life expectancy losses, Eastern Europe and the United States witnessed sustained life expectancy deficits and substantial . Life expectancy deficits during fall/winter 2021 among people aged 60 years or older and <60 years were negatively correlated with measures of vaccination acceptance across countries (r60+ = −0.86; two-tailed P < 0.001, 95% confidence interval −0.94 to −0.69, r <60 = −0.74, two-tailed P < 0.001, 95% confidence interval −0.88 to −0 ,46). In contrast to 2020, the age profile of excess mortality in 2021 was younger, with age groups under 80 contributing more to life expectancy losses. However, even in 2021, recorded COVID-19 deaths continued to account for the majority of life expectancy losses. |
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COVID-19 has caused a prolonged impact on life expectancy levels, leading to unprecedented global mortality changes over the past 70 years, according to research published in Nature Human Behavior from Oxford’s Leverhulme Center for Demographic Science and the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research.
Using data from 29 countries in Europe, as well as Chile and the US, researchers found that life expectancy in 2021 remained lower than expected in all 29 countries, if pre-pandemic trends continued.
Previous global epidemics have seen life expectancy levels “recover” fairly quickly. But the scale and magnitude of COVID-19, in terms of mortality, confounds claims that it has had no more impact than a flu-like illness. Life expectancy losses during recurrent influenza epidemics during the second half of the 20th century have been much smaller and less widespread than those observed in the pandemic.
In 2021, a clear geographic division appeared. The researchers found that most Western European countries experienced a recovery in life expectancy from heavy losses in 2020. Sweden, Switzerland, Belgium and France experienced a complete recovery, returning to pre-crisis life expectancy levels. pandemic of 2019. While England and Wales saw partial rebounds from 2020 levels in 2021, life expectancy in Scotland and Northern Ireland, however, remained at the same low level as in 2020.
But Eastern Europe and the US witnessed worsening or increasing losses in life expectancy over the same period. The scale of life expectancy losses during the COVID-19 pandemic in Eastern Europe was similar to that last seen in the breakup of the Soviet Union, according to the research.
This East-West divide in life expectancy during COVID-19 generally reflects greater losses in countries that had lower levels of life expectancy before the pandemic. Bulgaria was the most affected of the countries studied, with a decrease in life expectancy of almost 43 months, during the two years of the pandemic. According to the document, "Bulgaria, Chile, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland and Slovakia suffered substantially higher life expectancy deficits in 2021 compared to 2020, indicating a worsening burden of mortality during the course of the pandemic.
In addition to pre-pandemic life expectancy, there seemed to be a vaccination effect that followed the same East-West divide in Europe.
Countries with higher proportions of fully vaccinated people experienced smaller life expectancy deficits.
Older ages, especially those over 80 who had seen the most deaths in 2020, benefited from vaccine protection and a decrease in excess mortality in 2021.
Dr Ridhi Kashyap, co-author of the Oxford study, notes: "A notable change between 2020 and 2021 was that the age patterns of excess mortality shifted in 2021 towards younger age groups, as vaccines began to protect the elderly".
But there were "outliers," who had surprisingly high life expectancy losses, despite high vaccination rates. Dr Jonas Schöley, co-author of the study from the Max Planck Institute, says: "The finer details of the age prioritization of the vaccine rollout and the types of vaccines used may explain some of these differences, as well as the correlations between acceptance of vaccines and compliance with non-pharmaceutical interventions or the overall capacity of the health care system.’
He adds: "Countries such as Sweden, Switzerland, Belgium and France achieved a recovery to pre-pandemic life expectancy levels because they managed to protect both the elderly and the young."
However, the research team expresses concern about the possible broader international impact of the pandemic. Another co-author of the study, Dr. José Manuel Aburto, maintains: "In 2020, the losses in life expectancy suffered in Brazil and Mexico exceeded those experienced in the US, so these countries are likely to continue suffering impacts on mortality in 2021, potentially even exceeding the 43 months we estimate for Bulgaria.’
The paper concludes: "It is plausible that countries with ineffective public health responses will experience a prolonged pandemic-induced health crisis with medium-term stagnations in life expectancy improvements, while other regions achieve a smoother recovery for return to pre-pandemic trends." ’
